Will Texas turn blue?
I live in the greatest state in the whole country and there is no denying the love I have for Texas. On the back of my car there is one of those “Don’t California My Texas” stickers. Have I been to every state? No. What I can tell you is there is no other place I’ve visited has the pride this state does, they just don’t have that…I don’t know how to explain it. You will find out when you get here if you are a conservative fleeing blue state tyranny.
One talking point I have heard from plenty of conservatives is, “All these people moving here from California are going to turn this state blue!” Over and over again I have to disagree with them. Yes, there are lots of people from the Golden State coming here, over 86,000 of them to be exact between 2018-2019. I even migrated from there to Texas when I was 11 back in ’99. But does that mean they are all bringing blue state politics with them? The data shows something a little different.
Republicans continue to win elections.
First take a look at the results of the last few election cycles. In 2016, Donald Trump won the state with a record of nearly 4.7 million votes, beating Hillary by 9% or over 800.000 votes. Now that was not the 16% margin enjoyed by RINO Mitt Romney in 2012, but Donald Trump is a very polarizing figure. Republicans still controlled the State House and Senate, they even won every State Supreme Court race in 2016.
Now 2018 is when things got a little tricky with the Mexican man with an Irish background, Robert O’Rourke running for US Senate. He likes to go by the name of Beto. There were signs everywhere it seemed, Beto mania was real. He was even leading in some polls against incumbent Ted Cruz. This was it, 2018 was the year and Beto was the guy to finally turn the tide in Texas and make us a blue state, or at least very purple.
The race was close with Cruz (R) earing 50.9% of the vote to 48.3% for the Irishman. The close margin is what worried conservatives. But take a look at the bigger picture. Greg Abbott was re-elected at a 56-42.5% margin or 1.1 million votes. Republicans won every statewide race with the Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Land and Agriculture Commissioners all receiving more votes than “Beto”.
In the 2020 election, President Trump received a record 5.9 million votes and won the state at a 52-46% margin against crazy Joe. Trump was able to flip longtime blue Zapata County, with a 94.7% Hispanic population. He flipped the county with 52% of the vote, the sound county he lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016 65-32%. Also in 2020, Senator John Cornyn won re-election by almost 10% or 1.1 million votes. Republicans did not lose any State House seats and held on to the State Senate.
Update: In a runoff election in Texas Congressional District 6, two Republicans, Susan Wright and Jake Ellzey garnered the most votes in a crowded field. Ellzey defeated Wright in the special election last month.
A Republican won that mayoral race in 85% Latino McAllen Texas in June, the border town that went to Hillary Clinton by 40 points in 2016.
In the City of Fort Worth, Republican Mattie Parker defeated Democrat Deborah Peoples in an open seat race as Incumbent Betsy Price stepped down.
UPDATE: Republican John Lujan defeated Democrat Frank Ramirez in the House District 118 runoff 51-49%. The District is 75% Hispanic.
What does the polling say?
In a 2013 poll conducted by Texas Tribune asking California expats who moved to Texas on their political views, 57% said conservative to 27% liberal.
A 2018 exit poll showed that native Texans preferred Beto by 3 but people who moved to Texas supported Cruz by 15 points.
Another poll in 2020 by The Texas Policy Foundation showed that among the 800 registered voters polled, that native Texans supported Trump by 7 points compared to 12 points who supported Trump over Hillary in 2016.
Californians have been moving to Texas for a long time and will continue to do so. But we cannot assume they are all a bunch of liberals looking to ruin our great state. Remember, California is not the only state bringing residents to Texas. Red states like North Carolina, Arizona and Oklahoma all bring thousands here each year. Then there are those who move out. According to the Texas Relocation report, between 435,000-471,000 left the Lone Star State.
Texas is a business friendly state, very pro-gun, more affordable than many other places and has a strong economy. It seems to me the majority of people coming here want to keep it that way.
So is Texas turning blue? I’d say no.
My suggestion is if you want to keep this state free and prosperous, vote in every election, national, state and local for candidates who align most with Texas values. Those who support the 2nd Amendment, who are pro-business, stand for freedom of speech and religion as well as pro-life candidates. What else can you do besides vote? Donate, get involved in a campaign, start a blog or a podcast to get you opinions out. Contact your Congressman or woman to support bills you want to see passed. Texas is our home, lets defend it and keep it free.